Best stock to invest in – Gevo To Supply Lufhansa With Renewable Jet Fuel



Best stock to invest in

Jim Lane
 
In Colorado, Gevo (GEVO)
has entered into a heads of agreement with Lufthansa to supply
Gevo’s alcohol-to-jet fuel from its first commercial hydrocarbon
facility, intended to be built in Luverne, MN. The terms of the
agreement contemplate Lufthansa purchasing up to 8 million gallons
per year of ATJ from Gevo, or up to 40 million gallons over the 5
year life of the off-take agreement.

Gevo utilized the enthusiasm generated in financial markets
yesterday to raise $15.6M in cash and to convert $11M in debt to
equity.

What the deal means in the short term

Here’s what it means in a practical sense. Expect Gevo to wind
down ethanol production and convert the entire Luverne facility
over to isobutanol, now that demand is ramping up. There will be a
hydrocarbon upgrading technology added, which will give Gevo the
option to produce up to 10 million gallons of hydrocarbon fuel
from 13 million gallons of isobutanol.

That’s a mix of isooctene and kerosene – that mix can be dialed
in to an 80/20 ratio either way, depending on market conditions.
The kerosene will be blended by a third party to Lufthansa’s
preferred blend. Could be a low percentage, could be high, that’s
Lufthansa’s call.

About the agreement

The heads of agreement establishes a selling price that is
expected to allow for an appropriate level of return on the
capital required to build-out Gevo’s first commercial scale
hydrocarbons facility. The heads of agreement is non-binding and
is subject to completion of a binding off-take agreement and other
definitive documentation between Gevo and Lufthansa, expected to
be completed in the next few months.


Then comes the engineering, the financing, the construction.
Stand by for 24 months. Mark fall 2018 on your calendar.

And so, Gulliver escapes from the land of the Lilliputians,
formerly tied down by the Butamax litigation and the
slow-to-emerge though shiningly profitable world of marine fuels.
Into the big time of delivering solar fuels to hungry airlines.

Can Gevo go Big?

“We want to get to big scale,” Gevo CEO Pat Gruber told The
Digest. “50 million 100 million gallons, where you really start to
get economies of scale. We’re sitting here with 75,000 gallons in
Silsbee, so how do we get to there from here. We’re going to do
this in an intermediate step. We’re going to build out Luverne for
isobutanol, we have good traction with Musket and the rest, and
there’s a good value proposition based on really high performance.
It’s high energy, high octane, lower carbon, lower cost. The
pricing and margins are good. But it’s truly a niche not a
commodity market, so it will take time to develop that niche.

“So, we have this opportunity to divert more into jet and
isooctane, at the same time as Lufthansa wants to see alternatives
develop.

“That’s their strategic interest. What they want is to
self-regulate on carbon emissions, and avoid a patchwork of
regulations everywhere they take off, land or fly over. The cost
of compliance would be too great. But what none of us know is
exactly what the cost of compliance will be, or the cost of oil,
or the cost of alternative fuels in that long-term. So, everyone
is moving cautiously although steadily.

“Meanwhile, it’s attractive to the investor community, too. They
see the massive market, and they see the obvious need and the
airlines actively developing. They understand there’s no electric
plane any time soon, so there’s aren’t that many options, and this
is one of the last sectors to be addressed in terms of lowering
carbon emissions. Investors also see that some of the alternatives
are more expensive, or are more expensive to scale.

The background news you can use

The agreement follows the
completion of the first commercial flights
using Gevo’s
renewable alcohol by Alaska Airlines. The airlines used a 20
percent blend. Gevo said at the time that it “believes that its
renewable ATJ has the potential to offer the most optimized
operating cost, capital cost, feedstock availability, scalability,
and translation across geographies.”

Gevo’s alcohol to jet synthetic paraffinic kerosene process turns
its bio-based isobutanol into jet fuel that meets the requirements
of the recently revised ASTM D7566 (Standard Specification for
Aviation Turbine Fuel Containing Synthesized Hydrocarbons) for up
to a 30 percent fuel blend.

In March, we
reported that
ASTM International Committee D02 on Petroleum
Products, Liquid Fuels, and Lubricants and Subcommittee D02.J on
Aviation Fuel passed a concurrent ballot approving the revision of
ASTM D7566 (Standard Specification for Aviation Turbine Fuel
Containing Synthesized Hydrocarbons) to include alcohol to jet
synthetic paraffinic kerosene derived from renewable isobutanol.
That’s now done, done and done.

So, now there are 4 approved alternative fuel specs. F/T fuels,
which no one is making. Farnesene, up to a 10% blend, which
TOTAL-Amyris makes but is expensive at the moment based on sugar
and jet fuel prices. There’s HEFA, which is in wide use but also
has waste oil / jet fuel price issues at the moment that have
limited the production. Now, there’s the isobutanol-to-jet fuel
pathway, which essentially is all Gevo’s right now.

Why would anyone make jet fuel from alcohol, anyway?

So, here’s the critique of jet fuels made from alcohol. Aside
from the technical hurdles, why would anyone convert $3.50 corn
into $1.20 aviation fuel when the yields are something like 1.3
gallons of hydrocarbon fuel per bushel? Isn’t that $1.56 worth of
fuel from $3.50 in feedstock?

Well, yes and no.

First, Gevo is producing its own distillers grains, worth roughly
$1.15 per bushel in normal market conditions. And, we believe the
fuel will qualify for the biomass-based diesel tax credit of $1.01
per gallon, relying on this from afdc.energy.gov.

Biomass-based diesel is defined as a renewable transportation
fuel, transportation fuel additive, heating oil, or jet fuel, such
as biodiesel or non-ester renewable diesel, and achieves a 50% GHG
emissions reduction.

And there’s roughly $1.00 in RIN value.

So, putting that together, you have $4.72 in value from that
$3.50 corn. That’s before considering the fact that the Lufthansa
deal is “expected to allow for an appropriate level of return on
the capital required to build-out Gevo’s first commercial scale
hydrocarbons facility.”

So that’s why you can make money making jet fuels from alcohols.

A Big Deal?

Yes, big. Monster.

Why? Combination of two factors. One, it’s Lufthansa stepping up,
big time, despite the low-price oil environment. Second, it’s a
multi-year offtake deal with a credit worthy partner. The kind
that can get a plant built, as Gevo continues to foster an escape
from near-certain death that wouldn’t be out of place in outtakes
from Deliverance.

Lufthansa’s progress

In February, we reported that low
fuel prices aren’t deterring Lufthansa from continuing to
develop aviation biofuels
, some it describes as a long-term
strategy and not one that is swayed but a tough year or two. The
company began looking for fuel alternatives in 2011 and has
launched a number of trial flights and commercial flights with
different blends of aviation biofuel with fossil jet fuel.

The relationship between Lufthansa and Gevo dates to spring 2014,
as
we reported here
.

Back in 2012, the airlines said that believed
that A1 jet fuel will remain the main aviation fuel for the next
20 years
but expected renewable jet fuel to replace up to 5%
of the market by 2019. With the European economic climate no
longer interesting for investors, the airline believes that
agricultural investments—for feedstock for aviation biofuel, for
example—is an area not yet fully exploited.

Jim Lane is editor and
publisher  of 
Biofuels Digest where 
this article was originally published
. Biofuels Digest is the most widely
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