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Buckle up, another module price war is afoot – or maybe it’s dumping
or maybe it’s panicked selling or maybe it is the result of
overcapacity and softening demand or maybe it is China’s government
saying NO MORE to it’s out of control market and effectively
stranding a whole lot of overcapacity or maybe it is all of the
aforementioned. Pricing is always a complex subject.
The average price for modules from China is currently $0.60/Wp (and
dropping) and the average price for smaller buyers is $0.66/Wp (and
dropping). These are averages and there are prices for inventory as
low as $0.33/Wp. There are non-inventory modules available in the
$0.49/Wp to $0.60/Wp range. The current trend in module prices is
down, pressured by strong production levels in China during the
first half of 2016 and a slowdown of deployment.
Comment: Module prices will be tumbling potentially through
the end of the year. Look out for quality issues. Manufacturers in
China have overproduced and with the Chinese government looking to
control deployment many are looking to rid inventory of
Lesson: Anyone who things that prices will stay down, think
again. Anyone who thinks that prices will tick up to consistent
margin recovery level…think again. Module sales in the solar
industry are historically an unpleasant competitive area in which to
do business as many failed
companies would attest.
Paula Mints is founder of SPV Market Research, a
classic solar market research practice focused on gathering data
through primary research and providing analyses of the global
solar industry. You can find her on Twitter @PaulaMints1
and read her blog here.
This article was originally published in the August 31st issue
a bimonthly executive report on the solar industry, and is
republished with permission.
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