Good stocks to invest – Frasers Hospitality Trusts Strange Non-Accretive Novotel Melbourne Purchase



Good stocks to invest

Frasers Hospitality Trusts decides to do a rights issue to acquire Novotel Melbourne in Collins for A$237 million.

This deal is strange because it is not an accretive deal on the first day.

When we say it is not accretive, it means as an existing shareholder, your dividend per share will go down, as a result of this acquisition, instead of up.

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This hotel is located in the prime Collins Street in the heart of Melbourne central business district, which is surrounded by prime and A-grade commercial offices and retail malls.


Frasers Hospitality is not purchasing from their parent but LaSalle Asset Management.

According to the Australian press, LaSalle wanted to sell this and the retail fashion and dining precinct as separate deals or together.

The press stated that Frasers Hospitality have wanted to edge into this Melbourne district for some time and purchasing this hotel looks to fulfill that goal and to grow their assets under management.

Breaking down the numbers

FHT will be issuing 32 shares for 100 shares you own as a shareholder. This should bring in SG$265 mil, which will fund the acquisition with some money left over.

Since the whole transaction is funded by equity, we want to see if this acquisition value adds to the shareholder from the yield perspective.

To do that, this new asset must return better than the existing equity, in this case, the dividend yield.

FHT has a rather high dividend yield of 7.9%.

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FHT did a recent acquisition of a German Hotel, funding it with preference shares. After the acquisition of Novotel Melbourne, the dividend per share yield will fall to 7% based on the dilution.

If you reverse engineer the figures, the NPI yield of this new property is just 5%.

Why would FHT Manager make such an acquisition?

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The Manager’s Narrative of the Benefits of this Deal

The manager illustrated that the benefits of this deal is that it will improve the liquidity of the traded shares. The amount of shares will increase, FCL trust and FCL parent TCC Group will both subscribe to the rights issue but will not subscribe excess rights.

This will also diversify their income stream.

From Daiwa’s analyst report, management have stated they have eyed a presence in Melbourne for a long time and that this location is very prime.

The terms to them is also attractive at a post AEI NPI yield of 6.4% versus recent hotel transactions in Sydney of between 4.2% to 6.2%

On one hand, Frasers should be rather familiar with that area, consider Frasers Commercial’s recent purchase of office build is diagonally opposite this Novotel Melbourne hotel.

Still it is strange for them to bring up diversification of income stream.

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If we look at FHT’s presence, they do not look like they are concentrated. Rather, like Ascott REIT (dividend yield 6.9%) , their income stream looks diversified and provide some damping if there are poor tourism outlook in a particular country.

Would purchasing another hotel greatly enhance the shareholders for this reason?

Daiwa manage to teased out a post AEI NPI yield which is much higher than the increase in distributable income yield of 5%. The management do not seem ready to forecast the future NPI yield. They use a historical figure which is rather meaningless now.

Summary

Whether a deal is accretive or not to the existing shareholders may not be known in one year. Some purchases made by Capitaland Mall (dividend yield 5.3%) only became accretive after some years of traffic growth.

Management have painted a picture that the growth in this prime area is good. Perhaps we would see this asset become accretive 4 years down the road.

As an existing shareholder, I certainly wouldn’t be happy to see my forward dividend yield drop from 7.9% to 7.0%. I have a feeling, if we factor in the post-AEI better rates, the dividend yield drop might be lower.

The TERP will be $0.72 and the rights are renouncible, which means if you do not wish to subscribe to the rights you can sell of the rights once it is listed on the SGX.com

To get started with dividend investing, start by bookmarking my Dividend Stock Trackerwhich shows the prevailing yields of blue chip dividend stocks, utilities, REITs updated nightly

 

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