Penny stock investing
Episode #8: Starved for Yield? Time to Go Global
Guest: Episode #8 has no guest, but is co-hosted by Meb’s co-worker, Jeff Remsburg.
Topics: Episode #8 marks Meb’s first “listener feedback” episode. We’ve received numerous bond-related questions from listeners, but they all tend to reduce to something along the lines of: “Bonds are hovering around historically low yields. Where do they fit in a diversified portfolio today?” Meb tackles the question, discussing Treasuries first, then expanding to global sovereign bonds – which, by the way, is the largest asset class in the world. In fact, a market cap weighting would suggest you have about one-third of your portfolio in global bonds. Instead, the average U.S. investor has around 0%. This leads to a discussion about using a value screen to help identify attractive global sovereign debt opportunities. Turns out you could be invested in a basket generating about 7% right now. Of course, you’d be investing in countries like Brazil, Russia, India, Turkey, Mexico… Could you do that? If you’re a yield-starved investor, it might be time to consider the question more seriously as U.S. bond yields may not climb to meaningful levels for quite a while. So as to U.S. bonds, will yields keep dropping? Or is it time to get out? Find out Meb’s thoughts in Episode #8.
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Running Segment: “Things I find beautiful, useful or downright magical”:
Transcript of Episode 8:
Welcome Message: Welcome to The Meb Faber show, where the focus is on helping you grow and preserve your wealth. Join us as we discuss the craft of investing and uncover new and profitable ideas, all that help you grow wealthier and wiser. Better investing starts here.
Disclosure: Meb Faber is the co-Founder and Chief Investment Officer at Cambria Investment Management. Due to industry regulations, he will not discuss any of Cambria’s funds on this podcast. All opinions expressed by podcast participants are solely their own opinions and do not reflect the opinion of Cambria Investment Management or its affiliates. For more information, visit cambriainvestments.com.
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Meb: Welcome to the show everybody. We have another in between episode where we have no guests today but cohosting with Jeff, and we have started getting a lot of great feedback on the podcast so far. A lot of really good positive feedback but also some constructive feedback as well. It seems like most of you really like the intro music although we’ve gotten a few negatives as well. As in someone was calling it, I don’t know about this, hip-hop-ity and such music you have in the beginning but we are going to try a new format today. We are going to start answering some of the Q&A. You guys have asked a lot of questions. We are going to start to incorporate it into some of the podcasts, and I figured we had to start today with just asking some of them that we’ve been getting. So, Jeff, welcome again and what have you got for us today?
Jeff: Thanks. A question which I’ve seen a lot, which I think would be helpful for your listeners to hear you address involves bonds, where we are at right now. We’ve seen basically historical yields. Traditionally, bonds have been a great diversifier to start portfolios but I’m curious if that still exists right now with this set up in the market and frankly with yields so low and with values where they are. What does that mean for investors today? How do we approach bonds?
Meb: So, for context, the US has yield, US tenure bond, which is kind of the benchmark we are talking about, yields about one and a half, it’s called 1.6% and I had a joking tweet in 2012 that I just retweeted myself the other day, which I know is bad form but I was replying to it but the tweet says ‘wake me up when the tenure hits .5%’ because part of that was talking about the Japan experience over the past 20 years where the Japanese bond, once it originally cross below 2% didn’t cross back over. So, it sat there for the longest time and now you have this really weird world where a lot of bonds are yielding even negative territory. Charlie Monger was talking about this where he said, “Can you go back five or ten years? Would anyone have predicted this sort of world we live in, and especially on the short-term bond, something like 13 foreign developed and emerging countries have negative yielding bonds.”
So, let’s talk about treasuries for a second, because treasuries play a very specific role in a portfolio and historically, they have been a great diversifier to U.S. stock. So, the traditional 60-40 portfolio works great because you go from one asset being stocks to two assets being stocks and bonds that are not correlated, pretty low correlation. The challenge of course is that correlation varies over time. Sometimes, stocks and bonds are correlated, sometimes they are not correlated at all and you can’t count on it. Correlation is something in general we always say you can’t count on. So, when you have an environment like an in ’08 for example, almost everything went down. Bonds did go up but almost everything went down.
If you also look historically, there is a great…JP Morgan’s guy did the market, puts out a quarterly sort of chart book. I don’t agree with a lot of the charts and conclusions they put out but a number of them are great and one of them shows stock bond correlation but it breaks it down into interest rate regime meaning it’s a scatter plot and interest rates below, I think it’s 5% what the correlation looks like and interest rates when they are above 5%, what correlation looks like. Stocks and bonds, when interest rates are normal, kind of the 0 to 4% range, are not correlated, so good diversifier, which is where we are now. But when stocks and bonds are above 5%, they are highly correlated because, and that makes sense if you think about it.
So, a bond, for those who are listening, bonds price and yield is like a seesaw. If yield goes down, the price of that bond goes up and vice versa. If you have a high interest rate environment which usually means a high inflation environment, so say yields are 7% and those yields continue to go up which is bonds are going down, stocks don’t like that. So, stocks would also go down. The good news is we are in an environment where they are not correlated. However, so much of the juices come out of bonds. It’s one of the questions when people say, “Meb, what keeps you up at night?” And I say, “Not much, because I sleep just fine.” But if there was something, it would that be in the next crisis, perhaps bonds wouldn’t be a good diversifier.
Jeff: What’s going to happen with bonds now? I mean with so many sovereign nations going into a negative interest rates, I would assume that the tenure is still being flocked to right now which could potentially continue to push them up in value. Is that an accurate assessment or are we in a bubble here? What’s going to go on?
Meb: One of the things we always say is that U.S. bonds always play strategic role in the portfolio and how much is the question but we also wrote a paper recently called ‘finding yield in a 2% world’ which ironically was written in January as already dated because now, we are down to much less than 2% world but we started out that paper saying, do you know what the largest asset class in the world is? And most people either assumed its stocks or bonds but many investors are surprised to know the answer is foreign debt and that includes both southern debt as well as corporate bonds as well. But if you ask investors how much do they have in foreign bonds, the answer is almost always zero. So, Americans always have at home country buy it sort of comes to foreign stocks. So, they put 70% of their stock allocation in the U.S. when it should only be 50 but also when applied to bonds, they put almost nothing in foreign bonds when as a percentage of the portfolio, if you were just doing market cap waiting, it means you would have about a third of your portfolio in foreign bonds and in most, just never do.
So, you have this environment right now where U.S. government bonds are yielding 1.6%, which is actually pretty good compared with the rest of the world where the average market cap weighted fund which is 70%, so that the same that stock index or market cap weight and you own the most of the biggest stocks, Apple, Google, Exxon. In foreign sovereign bonds, you own, it’s something like 70% is five countries, U.S., UK, France, Germany, and Japan. That portfolio yields less than a half of 1% and so a lot of reasons that people say, “No, no, no. Why would you ever invest in foreign bonds? I can invest in the U.S., get 1.6, and if I invest in foreign, I’m getting less than a half a percent.” I think that’s actually a very reasonable reaction and what we talk about in this paper however, is we say, well, actually there is a better approach just like in stock evaluation. There is a better approach than just market cap weighting and that’s applying a value approached to bonds similar way that you would to stocks.
What we did in the paper is we looked back to 1900. We said, “U.S. bonds had real returns of about 2% a year and the median country outside the U.S. is 1.7.” So, for all intends of purposes in those are real returns, we talk about the old 5-2-1 rule. Real returns of stocks that run globally is around 5, bond is around 2, bill is around 1. So, 2%. So they are in the same ball park as U.S. stocks.
Now, some countries had much better. Denmark did 3.3% real, congrats; and the worst, well, there is a lot of countries with the worst because many of them suffered hyperinflation and there is a lot of unfortunate examples of that. We used to, back in our old talks, go pass out. You can buy hyperinflated currencies online through from Zimbabwe or Turkey or Hungary. All these examples, there is a good link to this, but Business Insider has a good slideshow of the nine worst episodes of hyperinflation in the past 100 years, but those essentially destroy the entire value of those bonds.
So, you have this world where many European countries yield .5, 0, or negative. But if you include foreign developed and emerging, the average country, actually yields almost 2.9%. So, you are getting a much better yield globally than you would in just the U.S., in particularly, the market cap weighting. So, that’s a first say, all right, you could actually go get a broad-based foreign and emerging and so but if you then say there is a ton of research on this, some of them [inaudible 00:09:41] for the optimist Credit Suisse updates have this but they look at simply what a lot of FX traders or people would call carry, which is sorting a lot of these sovereign bond countries by yield and we do it based on nominal. You could do it real as well. It doesn’t really matter overtime for the results but if you sort countries by yield and we went back and did this with 30 countries in 1950 and we sorted it by the top third, the middle or the bottom third. It turns out by simply sorting on yield, you end up with about two percentage points out performance over the equal weighted and global market cap weighted benchmarks.
Jeff: How much political risk are you taking when you do that?
Meb: People always ask this question and say, “Why aren’t these countries a lot riskier?” And they’ll usually speak to specific examples. So, when Russia was going through all of their nonsense a few years ago, invading countries, shooting down planes. When you take a step back and say, well, the U.S. has done plenty of that. We’ve invaded lots of countries, we’ve shot down commercial planes before. People don’t remember this or they don’t talk about it. There is always geo-political mess going on somewhere. I mean you look at our political situation and look at political situation everywhere, it doesn’t ever seem to be a smooth sailing kind of anywhere in the globe but that’s what we kind of call a standard.
Jeff: So to protect yourself just in case this time was different to some capacity, is there a sort of minimum tranche that you would want to invest in this countries or is it free to sort of dive wherever you want?
Meb: So, a couple of things. One, historically, look in the results back to 1950. There is no meaningful pick up in volatility for investing in the highest yield or is then investing in the broad-based indexes. Draw down is a tiny bit higher, but not substantially. It’s actually still low. So, for sovereign bonds, it’s under 30% but considering most asset classes, we are talking U.S. stocks, foreign stocks, REITs, commodities, have had a 20% down month before.
Sovereign bonds still tend to be fairly low vol and on top of that, most of these countries don’t just outride to fall. I mean the frontier, it happens a little more and it happens with countries but if they fall, you still end up getting some amount on the dollar. It might be 80 cents; it might be 60. So, these historical simulations take into account all of those bad market events as well. A better question is so why don’t more people pursue this? And I think you touched on it very accurately. It’s that, and I’m going to read a quote here and it’s from a recent paper called ‘Dissecting investment strategies in the cross section and time series’. Quite a mouthful.
But they say this trade can be profitable because high yields are associated with none diversifiable risk factors such as political turmoil or waving property rights or persistently high inflation, which is the main reason I think it works by the way is an inflation premier. We will come back to that. In the extreme, the yield differential can remunerate its so called peso effect meaning that jump risk can be very real even though it does not materialize. Alternatively, a high yield under currency can reflect the central bank just about to gain or regain anti-inflation credentials that will make its currency more desirable. If you look at a lot of historical simulations, you actually want to be investing in the highest inflation countries because what people expect is that it’s going to continue indefinitely and so, historically, they end up shying away from those and you end up getting a value premium by investing in the higher inflation countries and so that has its effects on both bonds but also on stocks as well.
Jeff: Which countries are we looking at right now that have high inflation?
Meb: Well, in the foreign and developed markets, most don’t, and that’s why bond yields track inflation pretty closely but you have the countries like Brazil of course, which-
Jeff: Take some guts right now.
Meb: Brazil has recently high inflation and then there are some that varies almost by the month. Venezuela is a really sad example, granted that’s not an emerging or foreign developed country, but we are almost like an entire system is shutting down. Now, that’s a whole different podcast topic where you are talking about capitalism, socialism and everything else and the reasons for that, but it’s really sad to see. So, an added benefit is that foreign bonds have a pretty low correlation to U.S. focused-stocks and bonds. The U.S. stocks and foreign stocks still have a fairly decent correlation and more so during globalization but bonds seem to have, at least for now, less of a correlation with U.S. securities, which is good news. If you think about this portfolio though again, a lot of the reasons that makes it tough is you look at it in your own Brazil and Russia India, Turkey, Mexico, but the funny thing is it looks like an emerging market bond for now, and that’s not always the case though. So the higher yield does not always emerging markets. It’s just like the cheapest value in the cheapest equity markets right now. If you look at the indexes, it is emerging markets, but a lot of the countries are developed markets right now.
However, so if you go pull up a Vanguard ticker for an emerging market bond fund, if you think the names are scary that I just mentioned, you can pick up, go type in any of this. Not even Vanguard, but the other ones. They are on Argentina, Kazakhstan, Venezuela, Ukraine, Iraq, and on and on. I think they don’t own that much usually because of the market cap weight but they still own them. But here is a little perspective. The current yield right now for the top third of global sovereign bond runs 7%. Relative to this, one and a half yield to get in the U.S., this .5 on down market cap weighted, you are getting pretty high yield. So, there is a lot of buffer zone for that, relative to a normal portfolio. Over time, that spread has historically been around two and a half percentage points. It’s been as low as 1 and as high as six and a half. So right now, what is that? 7 over a global of let’s call it 2.9 or 3. So, it’s around 4. It’s on a higher end but the cool thing is emerging market bonds have transformed from having much worse credit situation to a now investment grade. You’ve had this improvement in credit situation for many of this countries but still the yield tends to be pretty high.
We think it’s a pretty good time for…and maybe a little biased because we run a fan-base on it but I think that investing…at least moving away from the U.S. and tilting towards yield can be a really a smart play right now.
Jeff: So, just trying to sort of put context around this. As you know my background, I come from investment newsletter world where I saw a lot of retail mom and pop investors who were in or near retirement who were not just looking to preserve their wealth but needed some active cash flow generation and to some degree, bonds were part of that, and over the last few years, as yields have continued dropping lower, that’s made things very, very difficult for them to meet their needs. So, are you now basically saying that you believe it’s safe and it’s appropriate to look globally and to go to this emerging markets bonds as a proxy for what used to be your U.S. allocation?
Meb: There is a lot in that question. So, the first part is it’s a tougher environment for people looking for yield. We talked before on a previous podcast where we said U.S. stocks, we expect them to return what? Maybe 4% in the next ten years, 5% if we are lucky. Not negative but not the historical 10% or so people expect. Bonds, you know what you are going to get. You are getting one and a half and so you can’t put together five and one and a half, and get to this historical 8% yield that people…or return that people expect. The good is that we think most of the foreign assets are cheaper. So adding your foreign stocks, adding particular emerging markets we like, adding commodities and having a balanced portfolio, we think it’s going to have a much better performance and it’s showing this year, that balance portfolio almost any global assets allocation as long as you include foreign and real assets is having a wonderful yield. I mean look at gold, look at a lot of commodities are finally breaking up after having a horrible last few years.
So, having a globally diversified portfolio is much better and then you can start to do tilts. Tilt towards value, tilt towards momentum and news trend. There is a great quote on this. I was actually going to use it on a different podcast but now I just remembered it. So, this is from the book, ‘Reminisces of a Stock Operator’, one of the all-time classic great investment books. Have you read it?
Jeff: I have not.
Meb: Shame on you. It should be a required reading for everybody at our firm. The most recent edition or recently edition, there is a forward or maybe it’s an afterward, I can’t remember from Paul Tudor Jones. We mentioned in a prior podcast, famous macro trader, but there is like a hundred gem quotes in there but one of them was, he goes, “There are two rules from this book by which I now live during these later stages of my constitution; First as the tenant, the trend is your friend, which is repeated often but not often enough. You will simply never make any money unless you begin and end every trading thought with that in mind.” That’s a pretty powerful statement first of all. Second, he goes, “Second is the old adage, actually popularized in the 1880s as I learned in the annotations, sell down to the sleeping point. And we say this to a lot of people. I often say I’m asset class agnostic. I don’t care what you do with your money. You want to put it in CDs, you want to put in whatever you want. Having appreciation for what’s happened historically and if you are not comfortable, a lot of the automated solutions will put you into a very heavy equity portfolio particularly if you are very younger. You could say, “Hey you have 50 years. No sweat. Just close your eyes and buy and hold,” without realizing that most people can’t sit through the 50 to 80% loses.
The challenge of course is that until you live through it, you can’t really appreciate what that number means on paper and he actually has a little more on his quote. He still goes, probably the best lessons to be learned from this book comes from his repeated failures and how he dealt with them. He is talking about Lefèvre [SP]. In the book, I think he lost his entire fortune four or five times. I did the same thing but was fortunate enough to do it all in my early 20s and very small stakes of capital. I think it’s no great coincidence that our greatest champions, our greatest artists, our greatest leaders, our greatest everything, all seem to have experienced some kind of gut wrenching loss. We talked earlier in our prior podcast about how I lost all my money on an option trade earlier in my life which certainly colored my future investing perspective and one of the reason I became a…I wanted to quantify everything to say, I don’t want this to happen again, and so a lot of people until they live through a big bear market or in whatever they are investing in, it’s really hard to quantify that.
So, going back to bringing this back to the foreign bonds is that if you’re talking to a client or an investor, and you have an investment approach, where you’re trying to diversify because most advisors that are talking to clients right now, they say, “Hey yeah,” for the last four years, every year they have had that conversation of why do I own this emerging market stocks? Why do I own this commodities? And they’ve had say, “Look, it’s part of the allocation. These all kind go in and out of favor over time.” You just have to stick with it. That’s a tough conversation, particularly when U.S. stocks and bonds are ripping as they have been for the past nine years. But every investment asset, every investment strategy goes in and out of favor. There is a great quote from…I’m going to murder his name, Jean-Marie Eveillard, First Eagle Funds, I apologize Jean-Marie, but he says, “In 1997, clients were upset, in ’98 they were mad, in ’99, they were all gone. I lost seven out of ten clients.” GMOs, granting a GMO says a lot of same things. Of course, they both out performed massively in the following years being value investors.
So, if you go and tell your clients and investors that you are planning on investing in Greek and Russian debt, that’s probably the wrong way to frame this, but if you were to go and say, “Hey look, we are going to apply a value approach to the largest asset class in the world,” most people would nod in agreement and say, “Okay, that makes some sense.” Particularly, if you said, “Would you rather hold a diversified portfolio, 15 countries yawning 7% or a market cap weighted portfolio yawning half of one percent.” That seems to me like it could be…and it doesn’t mean you have to go put half your portfolio in foreign bonds but it means that it’s, I think it’s part of a reason for allocation.
Jeff: Is there a specific smell test that listeners can apply if they are looking at potential markets to go into? Is there anything that you would say it’s a red flag, stay away or is it just no, diversify, put it into a basket and you are good to go?
Meb: I think the latter is correct. Diversification, you never just want to go buy Greek debt and walk away. Although that was one of the best trades in the macro world a few years ago. You want to buy a basket. Same as with anything, you are never just going to go out and buy one stock and go away but you want to do it by all the traditional metrics, exchange traded, probably keep it to foreign, developed, and emerging and pay as little as fees as possible. So, just very basic solid advice that makes a lot of sense. I’ll tell you a question I always get on this, is they say, “What about currencies? Do you hedge the currencies or not?” We said with foreign stocks, we are agnostic. You either pick the hedge or you don’t but you have to stick with it. And so, in general, we always say just don’t hedge it. You’ll get some diversification benefit involving the foreign currencies.
That doesn’t really matter with stocks. With foreign bonds, if you stick to the developed market foreign bonds, then we think it makes sense to hedge because you are adding volatility to an asset class that doesn’t really have it. So, these bonds from U.S., Japan, French, Germany, etc., they not that volatile, the sovereign. And it doesn’t cost much to hedge but the cost of hedging emerging market debt, which tends to be more volatile has a much higher yield and we don’t think it makes as much sense. But again in general, I’m still somewhat agnostic. There are strings I have very strong opinions, there are strings I have very minor opinions on. I put this in the minor category. I don’t care either way but the problem of course will be most people won’t stick with it. If you look at the flows in it for example with [inaudible 00:23:58] hedge fund, they probably happened at the worst times. People see this massive dollar bull or bear market and flip around just like they do with any asset class.
So, currencies tend to be somewhat of a…we also think that currencies is an asset class you can absolutely apply rules to but again, that’s probably another podcast discussion.
Jeff: Bringing this back to U.S. bonds, I’m just curious of your take. Are you now actively lightening your allocation there? Are you nervous or are you letting it ride? What are your thoughts?
Meb: If you are a strategic asset allocator, you come off with the allocations and then that’s that. So, you look historically and say this is how much I want in the U.S., this is how much appropriate and you don’t really want to mock around with that. We don’t have any strategies necessarily that are going in and having subjective opinions on bonds or what not. You can look and we will post this to the show notes. You can look at periods, for example, when bonds have had really large drawdowns. So, we did this on the blog years ago where we said, “Look, historically the 30 year hasn’t declined this much in the past, hasn’t had this drawdowns this big and historically, the next 3, 6, 12 months is usually a great time to be owning bonds.” No one wants to because they are down 30% or whatever and on the flip side, I imagine it’s also true. I don’t have the stats in front of me but we’ve had this massive run in the 30 year and zeros and bonds in general and bond like utility stocks are just crushing at this year which I imagine is something I would want to run away from.
So, on a cocktail charter, yes, let’s probably take a step back. Those probably are going to be the best performing assets, but I don’t know. If you look at the momentum and trend systems, they are very heavy in bonds. But that makes sense. That’s where the momentum is. There have been crushing it. Those are starting to rotate into…they’ve held real estate a lot as well. You are starting to see some rotation into emerging markets and commodities as well. So, are we going to get an inflation pick up, or are those investments really…they go on precious metals for a while, momentum strategies, are those going to continue or not and who knows.
Jeff: When you conflict on trend versus momentum, which one do you get the urge to? Value momentum.
Meb: I have always had to say my desert island strategy is trend following so if I had to just take a step back that fits my personality, a lot of people, you know their personality is value. The more something goes down, the more excited they get. That’s kind of painful for me. It’s painful for me to own something and just watch it continuing to go down and down and not do anything. So, trend following will always be my base case and I published my portfolio I can’t mention on the podcast but if you goggle something like Meb’s 2016 portfolio, you will see exactly what I own, and it’s a very heavy momentum influence but it’s also a very heavy value influence because I know it works but I do it systematically so I’m not in there trying to pick out what works the best. By the way, this was an incredibly long one Q&A question. We are going to have to start either limiting the time we spend on this Q&As; or just to start asking one per episode. Do we have any more we want to ask today or it’s probably long enough already? We are going to wrap it up?
Jeff: Yeah, I think we should wrap it up.
Meb: We end every episode with things I find beautiful, useful, downright magical. I’m getting to the point where we are going to stop asking Jeff because he seemed to be getting weirder and weirder. He was talking about, let’s see, was it fake e-mail, websites and a group video chat.
Jeff: It’s amazing stuff.
Meb: What do you got for us this time?
Jeff: Uncrate.com. It’s a cool website that’s kind of oriented towards guys. It’s got gear and cars and tech and cool stuff. It basically profiles a lot of really cool fun stuff.
Meb: I’m familiar with that one. They often have classic cars and you know my love of…my first car was a 1983 brown Toyota Land Cruiser wagon, and I have always had a fascination with old Land Cruisers. So, they put a bunch of Cruisers on there and it’s actually really sad because did you know by the way that Japan came out with a 50th anniversary edition Land Cruiser. So all new components but with a classic body style only for sale in Japan and I don’t think you can import. Readers correct me if I’m wrong. I don’t think you can import a car not for sale in the U.S. because it hasn’t passed the safety standards. I’ve never been as sad as the day that I learned that they are putting out a new one but you couldn’t import it. So, if I’m wrong, readers contact me. All right, I’m familiar with that site so you are off the hook. So, mine something a little different and mine is a piece of art that I bought maybe a year or two ago that I can stare at all day it’s like most of the beautiful thing I have ever seen in and I’m going to murder this guy’s name its Japanese so Takeo, T-A-K-E-O, I-N-O-U-E, any guesses? Takeo Inoue. He has this sculpture, we’ll put a picture on the show notes, that is a dandelion lion encased in a plastic acrylic. So, it just looks like this dandelion hovering in midair. It’s the most beautiful thing I think I have ever seen. It’s for sale in a couple Japanese website. It’s not cheap. It’s like 200 bucks and there is a bunch of variations of it. Anyway check it out if you have a wife, husband, girlfriend, coworker advisor client that you particularly like, it would probably be really cool gift. I think it’s on the website somewhere, Tokyo, but anyway, we’ll add it to the show notes. That was a different one to mix it up. Again, every one, friends, thanks for taking the time to listen today. We always welcome feedback and questions for the mail bag. We’ll keep it shorter next time I promise or ask sort of a shot gun approach with a lot more at feedback at the mebfabershow.com. As a reminder, you can always find the short notes and other episodes at mebfaber.com/podcasts. You can subscribe to the show on iTunes. Please do and if you are enjoying the podcast, love it, hate it, whatever please leave a review. Thanks for listening friends and good investing.
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