What stocks to invest in
away from active management…
There’s a long-term movement by investors of all stripes away from actively managed mutual funds into index funds and ETFs. As Morningstar has recently reported, such switching has reached 2008-era levels in recent months. Surges like this have been the norm during periods of uncertainty.
The mantra of index proponents has long been that investors can’t control performance, but they can control costs. Therefore, all other things being more or less equal, investors should look for, and buy, the lowest-cost alternative in each category they’re interested in. That’s virtually always an index fund or an ETF.
Active managers haven’t helped themselves by generally underperforming index products before their (higher) fees.
…but net stock inflows
What I find interesting and encouraging is that stock products overall are receiving net inflows–meaning that the inflows to passive products are higher than the outflows from active ones.
why today is different
Having been an active manager and having generally outperformed, neither of these negative factors for active managers bothered me particularly during my investing career. One thing has changed in the current environment, though, to the detriment of all active management.
It’s something no one is talking about that I’m aware of. But it’s a crucial part of the argument in favor of passive investing, in my opinion.
what is an acceptable net return?
It’s the change in investor expectations about what constitutes an acceptable net return.
If we go back to early 2000, the 10-year Treasury bond yield was about 6.5%, and a one-year CD yielded 5.5%. US stocks had just concluded a second decade of double-digit average annual returns. So whether your annual net return from bonds was 5.5% or 5.0%, or whether your net return from stocks was 12% or 11%, may not have made that much difference to you. So you wouldn’t look at costs so critically.
Today, however, the epic decline in interest rates/inflation that fueled a good portion of that strong investment performance is over. The 10-year Treasury now yields 1.6%. Expectations for annual stock market returns probably exceed 5%, but are certainly below 10%. The actual returns on stocks over the past two years have totalled around 12%, or 6% each year.
rising focus on cost control
In the current environment, cost control is a much bigger deal. If I could have gotten a net return of 6% on an S&P 500 ETF in 2014 and 2015, for example, but have a 4% net from an actively managed mutual fund (half the shortfall due to fees, half to underperformance) that’s a third of my potential return gone.
It seems to me that so long as inflation remains contained–and I can see no reason to think otherwise–we’ll be in the current situation. Unless/until active managers reduce fees substantially, switching to passive products will likely continue unabated. And in an environment of falling fees and shrinking assets under management making needed improvements in investment performance will be that much more difficult.
– What stocks to invest in